🗓️ This Week in The Markets
Macro/Market News
Global software, legal tech, and IT services stocks experienced a significant selloff following Anthropic's release of open-source plugins that automate complex legal and financial tasks, as investors began pricing in the potential for rapid industry disruption.
Despite the doubt, AI capex is continuing to grow at a rapid rate, with Alphabet claiming it will spend $175-$185 billion in capex and Amazon claiming it will spend $200 billion in capex in 2026 alone.
Job openings in the U.S. fell to 6.54 million in December, the lowest level since September 2020. This decline has added to economic uncertainty as the labor market appears to be cooling significantly.
Company Specific News
SpaceX officially acquired xAI in a $1.25 trillion stock-swap deal, marking the largest M&A transaction in history. This merger unifies Elon Musk’s aerospace infrastructure with his AI ambitions.
Alphabet ($GOOG ( ▼ 0.13% )) reported annual revenues reaching $400 billion, driven by AI integration across Search, YouTube ($60B run rate), and Google Cloud ($70B run rate).
Walmart ($WMT ( ▼ 1.38% )) became the first traditional retailer to reach a $1 trillion valuation. The milestone was driven by rapid e-commerce growth, rising ad revenue, and the successful integration of AI-driven innovations.
Want To Read Tomorrow’s Deep Dive?
Tomorrow, we’re releasing our deep dive into “The Rise of Vibe Coding”. There are quite a few companies that seem primed to benefit greatly from agentic coding and micro-SaaS.
In true Sentinalysis fashion, we’ve created our own very niche dataset that you won’t find anywhere else, to explore which companies will be the biggest beneficiaries of Claude Code and the democratization of software development.
Many of the companies we outlined have sold off significantly over the past week or two, and some have earnings reports in the coming weeks!
Want to learn which companies are set to benefit? Sign up for Sentinalysis Premium!
We couldn’t fit all of the companies that are reporting into one image, so below is a snippet of the companies reporting earnings this week! Check out our social arb earnings calendar page to see the full list!
🛒 What the Haul?
Out of 388 TikTok hauls analyzed, these companies appeared the most:
Zara - 42 Appearances (10.8%)
Shein - 34 Appearances (8.8%)
Lululemon - 20 Appearances (5.2%)
H&M - 17 Appearances (4.4%)
Aritzia - 16 Appearances (4.1%)
Hollister - 16 Appearances (4.1%)
Skims - 16 Appearances (4.1%)
Chanel - 16 Appearances (4.1%)
Brandy Melville - 15 Appearances (3.9%)
Garage - 14 Appearances (3.6%)
Sephora - 12 Appearances (3.1%)
Nike - 12 Appearances (3.1%)
Dior - 12 Appearances (3.1%)
Bershka - 12 Appearances (3.1%)
Rhode - 11 Appearances (2.8%)
Louis Vuitton - 11 Appearances (2.8%)
Coach - 10 Appearances (2.6%)
iPhone - 10 Appearances (2.6%)
Fashion Nova - 9 Appearances (2.3%)
Free People - 9 Appearances (2.3%)
Aerie - 8 Appearances (2.1%)
Victoria's Secret - 8 Appearances (2.1%)
Primark - 8 Appearances (2.1%)
Balenciaga - 8 Appearances (2.1%)
Adidas - 8 Appearances (2.1%)
Urban Outfitters - 8 Appearances (2.1%)
Aeropostale - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Cider - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
PacSun - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Sol De Janeiro - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
New Balance - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Hello Kitty - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Alo - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Target - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Ugg - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
ASOS - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
PepperMayo - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Edikted - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Glassons - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Dove - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Amazon - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Ross - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Gap - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Summer Fridays - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Bath & Body Works - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Abercrombie & Fitch - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
American Eagle - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Lush - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Key Takeaways
Valentine's-themed inventory is the seasonal demand signal to track. Skims' Cherry Blossom collection required restock waits, Lululemon's ($LULU ( ▲ 0.41% )) heart-detailed items sold out regionally, and Chanel's pink "bow" bags drove haul content. Brands that nail holiday-themed drops are capturing urgency-driven purchases.
Lululemon's ($LULU ( ▲ 0.41% )) limited-edition drops are creating real scarcity. Lunar New Year and Valentine's collections, particularly the Oxford Red Define jacket and heart-detailed Groove pants, sold out fast enough that one creator drove 45 minutes to find remaining stock. For Lululemon, holiday capsules are proving to be reliable demand accelerants.
Hollister ($ANF ( ▲ 0.23% )) lands in the top 10 for a third consecutive period, and is successfully capturing "Pilates princess" and Y2K aesthetics at accessible price points ($5 tube tops, $16 dresses), and creators are noting improved fit across body types. The Gilly Hicks Active cross-sell is also working.
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🤖 This Week in AI
On Thursday, we saw OpenAI drop GPT-5.3 Codex and Anthropic drop Opus 4.6 at roughly the same time. As of writing, GPT-5.3 Codex has not yet been tested, but Opus 4.6 sits at the top of the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.
In addition to a new model launch, OpenAI has also dropped Frontier, a platform for enterprises to build, deploy, and manage AI agents. The platform allows for shared context across agents, representing a huge step for agentic development.
According to the blog post accompanying Google’s latest earnings report, Gemini is very quickly catching up to ChatGPT in terms of monthly active users, with Gemini having more than 750 million MAUs at the end of Q4.
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute individual investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice. Nothing in this newsletter is intended to be or should be construed as individualized investment advice. All content is of a general nature and solely for educational and illustrative purposes.
🗓️ Social Arbitrage Earnings Calendar