🗓️ This Week in The Markets
Macro/Market News
The Fed has cut rates by a quarter point, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%.
The current government shutdown is nearing the longest in history as it approaches its 32nd day
42 million Americans face potential food insecurity as SNAP benefits are in limbo, due to the government shutdown.
Company Specific News
Nvidia became the first company to reach a $5T market cap.
OpenAI has successfully transitioned to being a for-profit entity, paving the way for a rumored $1T IPO in the near future.
Microsoft now owns a 27% stake in the newly-structured for-profit entity, meaning its stake could grow to as much as $270B if the IPO comes to fruition.
🛒 What the Haul?
Out of 395 TikTok hauls analyzed, these companies appeared the most:
Zara - 38 Appearances (9.6%)
H&M - 36 Appearances (9.1%)
Shein - 26 Appearances (6.6%)
Bershka - 19 Appearances (4.8%)
Hollister - 18 Appearances (4.6%)
Ugg - 16 Appearances (4.1%)
Target - 15 Appearances (3.8%)
Louis Vuitton - 13 Appearances (3.3%)
Chanel - 12 Appearances (3.0%)
Aritzia - 12 Appearances (3.0%)
Victoria’s Secret - 11 Appearances (2.8%)
Primark - 11 Appearances (2.8%)
Lululemon - 10 Appearances (2.5%)
Sephora - 10 Appearances (2.5%)
Brandy Melville - 10 Appearances (2.5%)
Free People - 10 Appearances (2.5%)
Coach - 10 Appearances (2.5%)
Levi's - 9 Appearances (2.3%)
Old Navy - 9 Appearances (2.3%)
Nike - 9 Appearances (2.3%)
Uniqlo - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Aerie - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
American Eagle - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Gap - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Stradivarius - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Fashion Nova - 7 Appearances (1.8%)
Pacsun - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Urban Outfitters - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Burberry - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Skims - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Iphone - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Rhode - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Rare Beauty - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Charlotte Tilbury - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Tj Maxx - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Eos - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Puma - 6 Appearances (1.5%)
Alo - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Garage - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Gucci - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Cider - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Anthropologie - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Amazon - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Cos - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Summer Fridays - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Hello Kitty - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Ralph Lauren - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Stanley - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
New Balance - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Morphe - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Abercrombie & Fitch - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Nars - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Dove - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Pull&Bear - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
New Yorker - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Adidas - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Dior - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Mango - 5 Appearances (1.3%)
Key Takeaways
Despite the fact that Hollister (Ticker: ANF) has gained an incredible amount of traction over the past year, product overlap with Abercrombie has caused some cannibalization, pushing customers away from the slightly higher ticket Abercrombie to Hollister.
The Victoria’s Secret (Ticker: VSCO) Fashion Show was a landmark success, driving increased haul prevalence for the brand over the past few weeks.
Aritzia (Ticker: ATZAF) continues to be a cold-weather favorite, with its newly launched app almost instantly gaining a top-5 position in the Apple App Store. Additionally, their hit Super Puff™ jackets are selling out left and right, with countless SKUs running low as we move into the winter season.
🎯 Weekly Deep Dive: Aritzia (Ticker: ATZAF)
The Cozy Luxury Brand That's Constantly Selling Out
Aritzia has become one of the fastest-growing clothing brands in North America as the Canadian affordable-luxury titan pushes into the US market. Although the brand has been around for quite some time, its recent US expansion has driven incredible growth, as it ticks all the boxes for young consumers.
While Aritzia first gained traction through its perennially viral Super Puff™ jackets, it has branched out beyond being the go-to outerwear retailer for Canadians and Manhattanites over the past few years. Its high-quality, mid-priced items have made Aritzia the go-to retailer for women looking to build a capsule wardrobe of timeless pieces, from basic tops to merino wool and cashmere sweaters - without breaking the bank in the process.
Some of the most popular items that they have out right now are:
Super Puff™ Jackets
- Consistently praised for warmth and quality
- Multiple creators own multiple colors
- Strong emotional attachment ("nothing comes close")
Effortless Pants
- Described as versatile, comfortable, and well-fitting
- Multiple creators buying in various colors
- Work-appropriate yet casual
Fleece Items
- TNA Polar Tech fleeces are particularly popular
- Cozy Fleece line heavily featured
- Multiple color purchases common
Contour Line Bodysuits
- Praised for fit and versatility
- Popular for layering
Cashmere Items
- Quality highlighted despite higher prices
- Seen as investment pieces
Super Puff™ Jackets are already selling out, despite the fact that winter hasn’t even begun yet!
Many of these popular items are selling out or going on backorder, with customers willing to place an order and wait weeks to receive their items. It’ll be particularly important to pay attention to the backorder timelines for popular items as we move through the winter months, as this was an invaluable metric in projecting the company’s Q3 and Q4 beats in 2024.
Lastly, we’ll be keeping an eye on their app usage data, as well as the popularity of the app over time. The official Aritzia App launched last week and was an instant hit. Countless excited customers downloaded the app, quickly propelling it into the top 5 free apps in the Apple App Store.
Although quite a few TikTok creators were mentioning how frustrated they were with how clunky the app is, that’s probably good news for Aritzia, as this can more than likely be attributed to much higher-than-anticipated levels of app usage!
All in all, Aritzia seems primed for continued growth, but unfortunately, this doesn’t seem to be a secret anymore. The stock has had a monumental year-to-date run, but it may be worth adding if we see some pullback/volatility in the near future.
🤖 This Week in AI
Caterpillar (Ticker: CAT) became the latest company to benefit from the AI wave, as resounding demand for their energy infrastructure products boosted their Q3 top and bottom lines.
1X’s Neo Robot went on sale this week to the general public. You can have your very own (teleoperated) humanoid home robot for a $20,000 lump-sum payment or $500/month. Deliveries are expected to begin in early 2026.
Following a $27B financing deal with Blue Owl Capital (Ticker: OWL), Meta (Ticker: META), announced a bond offering that will raise up to $30B. This is its largest bond offering to date, as the tech giant seeks to raise capital to fuel its AI expansion.