Black Friday TikTok Haul Analysis

After analyzing countless haul videos where shoppers purchased Lululemon items, the brand's positioning as a premium athleisure staple remains firmly intact. Across these videos, consumers consistently used language like "obsessed," "gorgeous," and "love" when showcasing their purchases. The Scuba hoodie and Define Jacket emerged as the dominant product categories, with shoppers specifically hunting for these items during the sale period.

What's notable is the intentionality behind Lululemon purchases. Unlike impulse buys at fast-fashion retailers, consumers in these hauls described planning their Lululemon shopping, waking up early to hit stores at opening, making multiple trips to find specific sizes, and strategically using the Black Friday discounts to acquire items they'd been eyeing for months. One creator captured the prevailing sentiment perfectly: "I waited for a whole year for Black Friday sales" to maximize her gift card value.

The data reveals clear product winners this Black Friday. The Define Jacket appeared across dozens of hauls, often in multiple colorways, with shoppers specifically praising the flattering fit and versatility. The Scuba hoodie maintains cult status - consumers described hunting for specific colors and expressing genuine excitement when securing one on sale. Align leggings remain a core driver, with the "no front seam" variants receiving particular praise for addressing a common consumer pain point.

Notably, men's apparel showed up more frequently than in previous years, aligning with management's stated growth initiative in this category. Google Trends data confirms this trajectory, with searches for men's Lululemon products showing continued momentum.

Web traffic data paints a compelling picture of accelerating demand. Year-over-year growth steadily increased through fall: September showed +17% growth, October accelerated to +22%, and November, the critical Black Friday month, surged +40%. This acceleration pattern suggests genuine demand momentum rather than one-time promotional spikes.

Checkout page visits tell an interesting story. September saw explosive +76% growth in checkout visits, followed by +39% in October. However, November showed a slight -1.7% decline versus the prior year. This divergence between traffic (+40%) and checkout conversion (-1.7%) warrants attention, it could indicate heavier browsing without purchase intent, or simply reflect timing differences in when consumers completed transactions.

A critical caveat for investors: the September 18th launch of the American Express Platinum card's $300 Lululemon credit (dispensed quarterly at $75) likely inflates recent metrics. Amex partnership deals typically require the brand to fund a substantial portion, sometimes all, of the credit value. This could mean revenue gains come with meaningful margin compression.

The September checkout surge (+76%) aligns suspiciously well with the Amex launch timing. While this partnership drives traffic and introduces the brand to high-income Amex Platinum holders, the economics may be less favorable than headline revenue numbers suggest.

External validation supports the haul video findings. Lululemon leggings ranked #10 on Casey Lewis's "What Gen-Z Wants for Christmas" list, confirming continued relevance with younger demographics. Google Trends shows "lululemon" hitting 100/100 peak interest during Black Friday week (versus 99/100 last year), while "lululemon leggings" reached 100/100 (versus 85/100 last year), a meaningful uptick in specific product search intent.

It’s no secret, EVERYONE and their brother thinks that competition is killing the Lululemon brand.  After all, they only sell yoga pants, right?  How hard can those be to make? Well, let me regale you with a little story:

Although I was not publishing the newsletter around this time last year, I was doing the same thing - analyzing Black Friday Hauls on TikTok. Around this point in time, both Alo Yoga and Vuori were experiencing HUGE growth in the space.  Both were very prevalent in haul videos, but Lululemon received the most love.  

Now, if you scroll all the way back to the top of the newsletter, you’ll notice that Vuori isn’t even on the list. While Alo is there, and it certainly is popular, its existence is not killing Lululemon.  Multiple vendors can exist in a space and be successful, and at the end of the day, retail in 2025 is a profoundly tough business, as Vuori can probably tell you. 

I genuinely believe that Lululemon’s recent struggles can be attributed to a consumer that’s found themselves stretched very thin, and its hardly the only retailer that’s been struggling lately.  An established retailer that serves the “affordable luxury” market whose revenue/stock price hasn’t been hit this year is the exception, not the rule.  Have we seen big jumps in companies like AEO and VSCO lately?  Yes, but these were previously dead companies that saw a revival.

Lululemon's social proof remains exceptionally strong. The brand commands genuine enthusiasm, not just promotional-driven transactions (although this may be a recurring theme moving forward), from its core consumer base. Product innovation continues resonating (Define Jacket variants, Align improvements), and the men's category expansion shows early traction.

However, the Amex partnership introduces noise into near-term financials. Expect management to tout strong revenue growth, but scrutinize gross margin trends in the call tomorrow. The November traffic/checkout divergence also means it’s worth looking into their Q4 guidance. 

Ultimately, the Lululemon trade is a tough call. Personally, it’s hard for me to build substantial conviction in the trade knowing that we will inevitably see margin compression (although we’re uncertain to what degree) from the Amex credit.  But the stock is near the lowest levels it’s been in quite some time, with a mid-teens P/E ratio, in a sector where low-PE companies have been exploding upward after earnings reports in recent weeks, so it’s hard for me not to have some exposure to the company going into earnings tomorrow.

Now, we turn our attention to one of retail's biggest players, Target (Ticker: TGT), whose Black Friday performance and overall brand sentiment are displaying a fascinating dichotomy, with digital growth masking a significant drop in consumer excitement. The overwhelming narrative dominating social media for the retailer this Black Friday was the highly anticipated, yet universally disappointing, "swag bag" giveaway.

Target's promotion offered the first 100 people in line before store opening a holographic "swag bag" with the chance to win a high-value prize, such as a Ninja Slushi frozen drink maker, Beats Solo 4 Headphones, or a $100 Target Gift Card. Customers showed intense dedication, with many queuing for hours in freezing temperatures, some arriving as early as 3:00 AM.

However, the contents of the non-winning bags became an overnight viral sensation for all the wrong reasons. The bags, which were humorously shown as nearly empty in numerous videos, contained minimal value items such as:

The sentiment was one of profound disappointment and mockery, with shoppers feeling scammed and calling the offerings "Dollar Tree scraps". The effort, waiting for up to 8 hours, was deemed completely disproportionate to the reward. As one shopper stated, the experience "felt like Target played us," and the company failed to rebuild customer trust.

Beyond the giveaway, Target faced widespread social media scrutiny for allegedly employing deceptive pricing tactics, leading to a general feeling that Black Friday was a "joke" and a "rip-off". Viral videos showcased shoppers peeling back price stickers to reveal:

Despite this negativity, a separate narrative exists where customers praise Target for genuinely good deals. Shoppers successfully purchased a Theragun for $50 off its original price of $160 and noted a blue hoodie selling for a mere $15. In addition, hauls reveal a strong presence of both fashionable clothing (e.g., Wild Fable jeans, A New Day belts, Aerie dupes) and essential Christmas-themed merchandise (lights, wrapping paper, pajamas).

The divergence in Target's digital metrics tells an interesting story. Website traffic is up substantially year-over-year, approximately 17% higher in October and 14% higher in November compared to the same months in 2024. However, this increase is likely attributable to the rise of AI shopping agents and search tools rather than genuine consumer demand. Target recently announced a partnership with OpenAI that allows customers to shop through ChatGPT, making it one of the first retailers to enable multi-item purchases through AI platforms.

Meanwhile, the metrics that measure actual human engagement are declining. Monthly active app users fell roughly 4% in October and 3.4% in November year-over-year. Google Trends data for the term "Target" dropped from 77 out of 100 during Black Friday week 2024 to just 70 this year, a meaningful decline in organic search interest, which is especially meaningful, as many search terms have become oddly inflated in recent months. 

From a social arbitrage perspective, Target presents a fascinating case study in brand erosion. The haul videos tell a story of a retailer that still draws shoppers, our data shows Target bags appearing frequently in Black Friday content, but one that is increasingly associated with disappointment, distrust, and declining value perception. The swag bag debacle, the pricing controversies, and the broader financial struggles all point to a brand that has lost its magic.

While most retailers faced withering criticism for disappointing Black Friday promotions this year, American Eagle emerged as one of the few brands earning genuine praise from value-conscious Gen Z shoppers. Our analysis of over 100 TikTok haul videos reveals a consistent pattern: shoppers describe AEO's 40-60% discounts as "actually worth it" and repeatedly single out the brand as the rare standout in an otherwise underwhelming promotional environment.

The sentiment data tells a clear story. One creator explicitly ranked American Eagle "10 out of 10" while dismissing competitors like Bath & Body Works as "shiesty" and Hollister's 30% discounts as "not even giving Black Friday." Another noted that AEO receipts showed "a discount for every item," praising the transparency that other retailers lacked. This theme of authenticity and value appeared repeatedly across haul content.

The Aerie sub-brand continues to build cult-like loyalty. Multiple creators described themselves as "obsessed" with Aerie leggings, citing the crossover waistband design and fabric quality that "feels like butter." One shopper admitted she now owns Aerie bras, leggings, jackets, and even socks, explicitly wishing for a sponsorship. Unprompted brand evangelism at this level signals something beyond transactional loyalty.

Sweat sets and loungewear dominated AEO mentions, with shoppers gravitating toward matching hoodie-and-jogger combinations in neutral tones like gray, brown, and light blue. Jeans remain a core strength, with baggy high-rise and wide-leg styles earning particular praise. Several creators highlighted the drawstring waist detail on darker denim as both functional and trendy.

Aerie's activewear, particularly the OFFLINE line, generated enthusiastic reviews for both fit and comfort. The sports bras were repeatedly described as supportive without sacrificing aesthetics, and multiple shoppers noted they intentionally size down for workout support or up for loungewear versatility. This adaptability narrative suggests strong product-market fit across use cases.

Context matters. Shoppers weren't just praising American Eagle in isolation, they were actively criticizing competitors in the same videos. Hollister's 30% discount was dismissed as standard clearance pricing. Bath & Body Works' "buy 3 get 4 free" deal was called a "scam" requiring customers to purchase expensive candles to receive cheap hand soaps. Multiple creators described forgetting it was even Black Friday because mall stores "weren't even packed" and deals felt unremarkable.

American Eagle broke through this malaise. When a skeptical shopper specifically names your brand as the exception to disappointing retail, that's the kind of organic endorsement money can't buy, and it's exactly what showed up repeatedly in our data set.

While AEO has already reported its earnings, it’s an important stock to pay attention to moving forward, as both the American Eagle and Aerie Brands are showing considerable strength.  I won’t be going out and buying the stock right now, but I am keeping my eye on it.  At the end of the day, in the market that we’re in, the retail sector is PROFOUNDLY fickle, with pullbacks in share price occurring frequently.  Just in the past five trading days, we’ve seen the stock go through a 9% pullback (and recover shortly thereafter).

My game plan here is to monitor both haul prevalence and the stock price moving forward, and open a position in the company in the event we see a considerable dislocation between the two.